In August 2024, the VIX jumped above 60, a level not seen since the market meltdown in the initial stages of COVID-19 in March 2020, as worries grow about a possible recession. Just keep in mind that with investing, there’s no way to predict future stock market performance or time the market. The VIX is merely a suggestion, and it’s been proven to be wrong about the future direction of markets nearly as often as it’s been right.
While the VIX itself is an index and cannot be traded, there are funds and notes investors and traders can participate in to gain exposure to the index. Instead, investors can take a position in VIX through futures or options contracts, or through VIX-based exchange-traded products (ETPs). For example, the ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY) and the iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) are two such offerings that track a certain VIX-variant index and take positions in linked futures contracts. That much is understood by most investors, but what exactly is volatility and how is it measured for the overall stock market? You may have seen references to something called the VIX, an index that measures volatility, during times of extreme financial stress.
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It’s important to note here that while volatility can have negative connotations, like greater risk, more stress, deeper uncertainty or bigger market declines, volatility itself is a neutral term. Greater volatility means that an index or security is seeing bigger price changes—higher or lower—over shorter periods of time. Downside risk can be adequately hedged by buying put options, the price of which depends on market volatility.
While we strive to provide a wide range of offers, Bankrate does not include information about every financial or credit product or service. The VIX is an index run by the Chicago Board Options Exchange, now known as Cboe, that measures the stock market’s expectation for volatility over the next 30 days based on option prices for the S&P 500 stock index. Volatility is a statistical measure based on how much an asset’s price moves in either direction and is often used to measure the riskiness of an asset or security. Prices are weighted to gauge whether investors believe the S&P 500 index will be gaining ground or losing value over the near term.
That’s why most everyday investors are best served by regularly investing in diversified, low-cost index funds and letting dollar-cost averaging smooth out any pricing swings over the long term. One of the most popular and accessible of these is the ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY), which is based on VIX futures contracts with a 30-day maturity. Some exchange-traded securities let you speculate on implied volatility up to six months in the future, such as the iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (VXZ), which invests in VIX futures with four- to seven-month maturities. Large institutional investors hedge their portfolios using S&P 500 options to position themselves as winners whether the market goes up or down, and the VIX index follows these trades to gauge market volatility.
For instance, a stock having a beta of +1.5 indicates that it is theoretically 50% more volatile than the market. Traders making bets through options of such high beta stocks utilize the VIX volatility values in appropriate proportion to correctly price their options trades. Active traders who employ their own trading strategies and advanced algorithms use VIX values to price the derivatives, which are based on high beta stocks. Beta represents how much a particular stock price can move with respect to the move in a broader market index. All such qualifying options should have valid nonzero bid and ask prices that represent the market perception of which options’ strike prices will be hit by the underlying stocks during the remaining time to expiry. Since option prices are available in the open market, they can be used to derive the volatility of the underlying security.
What is the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX)?
Alternatively, you could adjust your asset allocation to cash in recent gains and set aside funds during a down market. Following the popularity of the VIX, the CBOE now offers several other variants for measuring broad market volatility. It should be noted that these are rough guidelines ⏤ unexpected events can throw a wrench into markets and a low VIX level today could be followed by a period of extreme volatility if circumstances change. In finance, mean reversion is a key principle that suggests asset prices generally remain close to their long-term averages.
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On the other hand, during times when the VIX is falling, indicating the possibility of more stability to come in the stock market, it might make more sense to focus on individual stocks or other riskier assets that might fare well during times of growth. During its origin in 1993, VIX was calculated as a weighted measure of the implied volatility of eight S&P 100 at-the-money put and call options, when the derivatives market had limited activity and was in its growing stages. The second method, which the VIX uses, involves inferring its value as implied by options prices. Options are derivative instruments whose price depends upon the probability of a particular stock’s current price moving enough to reach a particular level (called the strike price or exercise price).
- The VIX index tracks the tendency of the S&P 500 to move away from and then revert to the mean.
- Options and futures based on VIX products are available for trading on CBOE and CFE platforms, respectively.
- The reverse is true when the market advances—the index values, fear, and volatility decline.
- The VIX has paved the way for using volatility as a tradable asset, albeit through derivative products.
- Such volatility, as implied by or inferred from market prices, is called forward-looking implied volatility (IV).
Since the possibility of such price moves happening within the given time frame is represented by the volatility factor, various option pricing methods (like the Black-Scholes model) include volatility as an integral input parameter. The first method is based on historical volatility, using statistical calculations on previous prices over a specific time period. This process involves computing various statistical numbers, like mean (average), variance, and finally, the standard deviation on the historical price data sets. You might consider shifting some of your portfolio to assets thought to be less risky, like bonds or money market funds.
Options and futures based on VIX products are available for trading on CBOE and CFE platforms, respectively. Volatility values, investors’ fears, and VIX values all move up when the market is falling. The reverse is thinking, fast and slow true when the market advances—the index values, fear, and volatility decline. The VIX attempts to measure the magnitude of price movements of the S&P 500 (i.e., its volatility). The more dramatic the price swings are in the index, the higher the level of volatility, and vice versa.
The Market Volatility Has Calmed Down—or Has It?
Miranda Marquit has been covering personal finance, investing and business topics for almost 15 years. She has contributed to numerous outlets, including NPR, Marketwatch, U.S. News & World Report and HuffPost. Miranda is completing her MBA and lives in Idaho, where she enjoys spending time with her son playing board games, travel and the outdoors.
As a rule of thumb, VIX values greater than 30 are generally linked to large volatility resulting from increased uncertainty, risk, and investors’ fear. But this compensation does not influence the information we publish, or the reviews that you see on this site. We do not include the universe of companies or financial offers that may be available to you.
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For people watching the VIX index, it’s understood that the S&P 500 stands in for “the stock market” or “the market” as a whole. When the VIX index moves higher, this reflects the fact that professional investors are responding to more price volatility in the S&P 500 in particular and markets more generally. When the VIX declines, investors are betting there will be smaller price moves up or down in the S&P 500, which implies calmer markets and less uncertainty. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index that represents the market’s expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the S&P 500 Index (SPX).
Investing in the VIX directly is not possible, but you can purchase ETFs that track the index as a way to speculate on future changes in the VIX or as a tool for hedging. This isn’t something that will make sense for most investors who are working to meet a long-term goal such as saving https://forexanalytics.info/ for retirement. Examples include the CBOE Short-Term Volatility Index (VIX9D), which reflects the nine-day expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index; the CBOE S&P Month Volatility Index (VIX3M); and the CBOE S&P Month Volatility Index (VIX6M). Products based on other market indexes include the Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VXN); the CBOE DJIA Volatility Index (VXD); and the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX). Bankrate’s AdvisorMatch can connect you to a CFP® professional to help you achieve your financial goals. As the derivatives markets matured, 10 years later, in 2003, the CBOE teamed up with Goldman Sachs and updated the methodology to calculate VIX differently.
Because it is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates, it generates a 30-day forward projection of volatility. Volatility, or how fast prices change, is often seen as a way to gauge market sentiment, and in particular the degree of fear among market participants. The VIX, which was first introduced in 1993, is sometimes called the “fear index” because it can be used by traders and investors to gauge market sentiment and see how fearful, or uncertain, the market is.